It’s conventional wisdom for a reason: the idea that Idaho’s real legislative election transpires in May, making November an afterthought.

There’s plenty of truth to the conventional wisdom. Republican primaries can dramatically reshape the Legislature, both in ideology and in tone. That certainly occurred this year. Fifteen incumbents lost in the primary — including Senate President Pro Tem Chuck Winder, House Education Committee chair Julie Yamamoto and erstwhile House Majority Leader Megan Blanksma. This impactful turnover should shift the Legislature’s axis further to the right.

The November general election probably won’t be as dramatic — but it could make an important mark, on Statehouse politics and education topics. Political junkies and stakeholders already know this. In the larger political marketplace, however, the fall legislative elections fight a losing battle for attention and oxygen.

This time, there’s the bright and shiny object that is a presidential election. While Idaho’s four electoral votes are almost certainly not in play, casual voters can easily get caught up in (or overwhelmed by) a razor-thin national race for the White House.

This time, there’s also Proposition One, the Reclaim Idaho election initiative.  The measure survived a court challenge Thursday. If it ultimately passes, the Reclaim initiative would create a brand-new open primary, then establish ranked-choice voting in the general election. The two steps, combined, represent a complex reworking of Idaho’s elections.

“This is probably the most important thing you will see on the ballot,” former state schools superintendent and state GOP chairman Tom Luna said at a City Club of Boise forum Tuesday. Luna comes to this debate as an initiative opponent, but it’s hard to quibble with his assessment of the importance of this ballot measure.

Buried deep on the ballot, legislative elections are all too often overshadowed by top-tier races.

Part of the challenge is that — and there’s no nice way to say it — legislative races are often boring. In November 2022, only 15 of the state’s 105 legislative elections could loosely be described as “competitive.” That is, the winning candidate captured less than 60% of the vote. The remaining races were unopposed, or ended in landslides.

There will be far fewer unopposed races this year. Democrats focused on candidate recruiting — and filled their side of the ballot in 81 races, their best showing in years. But as of this week, 24 of those challengers haven’t raised a dollar for their campaigns. That’s no recipe for an upset, especially for Democrats facing uphill battles in heavily Republican legislative districts.

And unlike a statewide campaign — like the battle unfolding over Proposition One — legislative races are by definition local elections. Serious races are concentrated in a few scattered battleground districts.

Again, let’s look back two years. Those 15 “competitive” races took place in just six of Idaho’s 35 legislative districts. That makes it easier to identify this year’s races to watch, by focusing on a few battlegrounds:

• District 6, which includes Latah and Lewis counties, and part of Nez Perce County. Hardline conservative Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, faces a strong challenge from Democrat Julia Parker, a Moscow City Council member. Moscow Democrat Kathy Dawes is also running a competitive race against Rep, Brandon Mitchell, R-Moscow. Parker and Dawes enjoy heavy fundraising advantages over their incumbent opponents.
• District 15, West Boise. After a narrow 2022 election, Democratic Sen. Rick Just and Republican and former Rep. Codi Galloway are poised for a spendy rematch. So far, the two candidates have raised more than $175,000, combined. In one House race, Democratic Rep. Steve Berch has more than $165,000 of cash on hand for a race against Boise Republican Annette Tipton. The second House race pits Republican Rep. Dori Healey against Democrat Shari Baber.
• District 26, a mashup of Blaine, Lincoln and Jerome counties. Sen. Ron Taylor, D-Hailey, faces former Rep. Laurie Lickley, R-Jerome. House Minority Caucus Chair Ned Burns of Bellevue faces a rematch with Jerome Republican Mike Pohanka; in 2022, just 37 votes separated the candidates. In the second House race, Jerome Republican Rep. Jack Nelsen faces Hailey Democrat Chris Hansen. Nelsen won his 2022 race by only 84 votes.
• District 29, Pocatello. A member of the GOP’s leadership team, House Majority Caucus Chair Dustin Manwaring, faces a rematch with Democrat Mary Shea, a fellow attorney who was a substitute senator for the final weeks of this year’s session. Two years after he was elected to the Legislature by 112 votes, Democratic Rep. Nathan Roberts faces Republican Tanya Burgoyne.

In broad strokes, these swing races won’t change the makeup of the Legislature much. Republicans will still hold a huge majority, allowing them to pass anything they want without any support from Democrats. (The 2024 library law is a good recent example.) Even if Democrats pick up a seat here or there, that won’t necessarily win them an additional seat on the House or Senate education committee, or the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee.

However, these races could still have a big impact.

After the primary, the Senate GOP caucus is on a knife’s edge, nearly evenly split between hardliners and moderates. Hardliners would keep a reliable vote if Foreman wins — and might pick up an ally in Galloway. Conversely, Lickley would give moderates another vote. And this divided caucus will pick a successor to Winder, and select the leadership team that fills Senate Education and the Senate’s share of JFAC’s 20 seats.

When it comes to the Idaho Launch scholarship program, these swing races also matter. Democrats have unanimously supported Launch — providing the votes Gov. Brad Little needed to overcome critics in his own party. Little might need every vote he can find to shepherd his program through the 2025 Legislature.

The same every-vote-counts calculus applies to private school choice. So the third-party campaign money from school choice proponents and opponents — a defining theme from this spring’s GOP primary — could flow again in select races this fall.

The conventional wisdom isn’t all wrong. By and large, the legislative general elections aren’t as heated as the GOP primaries.

But some of this fall’s races matter, and matter a lot.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.