Election Night live blog (FINAL)

6:28 a.m.: Let’s put the capper on the legislative races, with the proviso that one precinct is still out in Blaine County.

Barring any big changes in District 26 — Blaine, Lincoln and Jerome counties — the GOP will pick up four seats in the Legislature, two apiece in the Senate and House. That would push the Republican supermajority to 30-5 in the Senate and 61-9 in the House.

Results from the four “swing” districts.

  • District 6: A GOP sweep. In the closest race, Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, defeated Moscow City Council member Julia Parker, capturing 53.3% of the vote. Reps. Lori McCann, R-Lewiston, and Brandon Mitchell, R-Moscow, were re-elected comfortably.
  • District 15: The West Boise district remains split, with one GOP pickup. Former Rep. Codi Galloway, R-Boise, avenged a defeat from two years ago, ousting Democratic Sen. Rick Just. She won with 51.8% of the vote. Reps. Steve Berch, D-Boise, and Dori Healey, R-Boise, were re-elected. Berch’s race was especially narrow; at 12:48 a.m., I wrote that it appeared Berch could be headed to a defeat. Berch defeated his Republican challenger, Annette Tipton, by 227 votes, capturing a 50.5% majority.
  • District 26: An apparent GOP sweep, and two looming Republican pickups. Former Rep. Laurie Lickley, R-Jerome, appears headed back to the Legislature. With 46.7% of the vote, Lickley is leading a three-way race, and is poised to oust Sen. Ron Taylor, D-Hailey. House Minority Caucus Chair Ned Burns of Bellevue appears headed to defeat, as Jerome Republican Mike Pohanka has 54.9% of the vote in their rematch. Rep. Jack Nelsen, R-Jerome, appears headed to re-election.
  • District 29: A GOP pickup. Pocatello Republican Tanya Burgoyne ousted Rep. Nate Roberts, collecting 52.6% of the vote. Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, trailed early in the evening, but defeated Democratic challenger Mary Shea in another 2022 rematch. Manwaring won with 55.2% of the vote. This remains a split district, however, since Sen. James Ruchti, D-Pocatello, was unopposed. But as things stand now, Ruchti will be the only Democrat in the Legislature to reside outside Boise; this is one of the most startling facts from Tuesday’s election.

Let’s also put the a final punctuation on the Proposition 1 landslide. Votes are still outstanding in three counties, but 69.6% of voters rejected the initiative to overhaul Idaho elections. As I said last night, I find the margin more stunning than the actual result.

Carly Flandro will update the bond and levy tallies Wednesday, but the largest school bond of the night failed: a $55.2 million measure in Soda Springs. Supplemental levies were faring better. The biggest supplemental of the night — a $50 million request in Coeur d’Alene — was comfortably passing, based on incomplete results.

Speaking of incomplete results, we’ll wait on the final numbers in the three North Idaho College trustee races. Based on the early numbers, the three more mainstream candidates were sweeping the trustee races. Emma Epperly will update the NIC results Wednesday.

I’ll have a full election analysis later Wednesday.

1:12 a.m.: With some of the numbers coming in slowly, this is the point in the night when we’ll shut down the blog. We’ll come back in the morning (about 6 a.m.) to update.

Also on Wednesday, I will be on “Idaho Matters” on Boise State Public Radio at noon to talk about the elections. And later Wednesday, I’ll have a full analysis story later Wednesday.

1:03 a.m.: We’re finally getting a clearer picture of the races in legislative District 26. And with some Blaine County numbers in the mix, Republicans are leading all three races:

  • Senate: Former Rep. Laurie Lickley, Republican,  44.9%; Sen. Ron Taylor, D-Hailey, 44.5%; Kala Tate, independent, 10.6%.
  • House Seat A: Mike Pohanka, Republican, 52.1%; Rep. Ned Burns, D-Bellevue, 47.9%.
  • House Seat B: Rep. Jack Nelsen, R-Jerome, 52.5%; Chris Hansen, Democrat, 47.5%.
If these results hold, these would be two more pickups for the GOP.

12:48 a.m.: It looks like West Boise’s battleground legislative District 15 could flip all red.

Ada County elections is reporting all precincts counted in the West Boise district (it looks like some absentee ballots might still be uncounted).

That said, here are the updated Ada County numbers:

  • Senate: Former Rep. Codi Galloway, Republican, 12,414 (52.8%); Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise, 11,089 (47.2%).
  • House Seat A: Annette Tipton, Republican, 11,819 (50.5%); Rep. Steve Berch, D-Boise, 11,590 (49.5%).
  • House B: Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, 12,607 (54.4%); Shari Baber, Democrat, 10,558 (45.6%).

This would translate to a couple of key pickups for the Republicans in the Treasure Valley’s battleground legislative district.

12:29 a.m.: House Speaker Mike Moyle just weighed in on the defeat of Proposition 1.

Here’s his statement:

“With polls now closed, Proposition 1 has failed. Over the last year, our state has been under attack by far-left, out-of-state activist groups attempting to change how Idaho conducts elections. Proposition 1 would have been costly, complicated, and unfair. I am thankful that Idahoans stood with me and other Republican leaders and rejected this manipulative attempt to to change Idaho’s electoral system. Let the defeat of Proposition 1 serve as a message to out-of-state interest groups: any attempt to interfere with policy in our state will be met with a resounding defeat.”

Moyle played no small role in the Prop. 1 debate. Idaho Rising, a PAC he chairs, put $321,000 into anti-Prop. 1 messaging.

12:18 a.m.: The “close races” update:

  • District 6 Senate: Julia Parker, Democrat, 50.3%; Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, 49.7%.
  • District 15 Senate: Former Rep. Codi Galloway, Republican, 51.6%; Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise, 48.4%.
  • District 15 House Seat A: Rep. Steve Berch, D-Boise, 50.8%; Annette Tipton, Republican, 49.2%.
  • District 15 House B: Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, 53.2%; Shari Baber, Democrat, 46.8%.
  • District 29 House Seat A: Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, 54.5%; Mary Shea, Democrat, 45.5%.
  • District 29 House Seat B: Tanya Burgoyne, Republican, 51.9%; Rep. Nate Roberts, D-Pocatello, 48.1%.

The upshot: The Parker-Foreman and Burgoyne-Roberts races have flipped. No new numbers from District 15.

If these six results hold, it’s a wash in the Senate, while Republicans would pick up a House seat. But Republicans could pick up a Senate and House seat in District 26 (Blaine, Lincoln and Jerome counties). We’re still waiting on a lot of numbers there; we still have no reports at all from Blaine County.

12:07 a.m.: Let’s put the Proposition 1 landslide loss into some context.

In 2012, voters rejected Propositions 1, 2 and 3 — the “Students Come First” education package, widely derided by critics as the “Luna Laws.” All three failed resoundingly. The least popular of the three, the much-maligned school “laptop law,” failed with 66.7% opposition.

Prop. 1 is faring even worse tonight. Again, the margin is the real stunner.

11:59 p.m.: To me, the biggest stunner of the night in Idaho is not about the outcome — but about the margin.

Proposition 1, the election overhaul initiative, is sitting right now at 30.9% support and 69.1% opposition.

I’m not really surprised that the initiative failed. But the supermajority opposition to Prop. 1 was not something I would have predicted.

11:43 p.m.: The “close races” update:

    • District 6 Senate: Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, 54.0%. Julia Parker, Democrat, 46.0%.
    • District 15 Senate: Former Rep. Codi Galloway, Republican, 51.6%; Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise, 48.4%.
    • District 15 House Seat A: Rep. Steve Berch, D-Boise, 50.8%; Annette Tipton, Republican, 49.2%.
    • District 15 House B: Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, 53.2%; Shari Baber, Democrat, 46.8%.
    • District 29 House Seat A: Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, 52.0%; Mary Shea, Democrat, 48.0%.
    • District 29 House Seat B: Rep. Nate Roberts, D-Pocatello, 50.5%; Tanya Burgoyne, Republican, 49.5%.

    The upshot: No races have flipped. No new numbers from District 29.

    Still waiting on a lot of votes in District 26 (Blaine, Lincoln and Jerome counties). No reports at all from Blaine County yet.

11:37 p.m.: And, spoke too soon on the Caldwell supplemental levy.

The updated tally: 4,991 yes, 4,186 no. That translates to a 54.4% majority.

11:22 p.m.: A close and potentially impactful local election: A two-year, $8.2 million supplemental levy in Caldwell is failing by 20 votes.

The current tally: 2,656 yes, 2,675 no. The levy needs a simple majority to pass.

A similar levy failed in May, forcing Caldwell trustees to institute a pay-to-play athletics policy.

11:13 p.m.: Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, has extended his lead in the District 6 Senate race. He now holds 54.4% of the vote over his Democratic challenger, Julia Parker, a Moscow City Council member.

All three Republicans are winning in that swing district. It looks like a mixed bag of results, though. Potentially a lot of votes still to count in Latah County. No numbers yet from Lewis County. So, we’ll keep an eye on things.

11:00 p.m.: The latest from the “close races” page on the secretary of state’s results site:

    • District 6 Senate: Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, 50.7%. Julia Parker, Democrat, 49.3%.
    • District 15 Senate: Former Rep. Codi Galloway, Republican, 51.3%; Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise, 48.7%.
    • District 15 House Seat A: Rep. Steve Berch, D-Boise, 51.0%; Annette Tipton, Republican, 49.0%.
    • District 15 House B: Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, 53.0%; Shari Baber, Democrat, 47.0%.
    • District 29 House Seat A: Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, 52.0%; Mary Shea, Democrat, 48.0%.
    • District 29 House Seat B: Rep. Nate Roberts, D-Pocatello, 50.5%; Tanya Burgoyne, Republican, 49.5%.
    • The upshot: The Galloway-Just and Manwaring-Shea races have flipped in the past half hour. No new numbers in Foreman-Parker.

      If all of these results hold, the Republicans would pick up a Senate seat and the House would remain unchanged. But based on those early numbers from District 26, which still have not been updated, Democrats would stand to lose the Senate seat and a House seat in that district.

10:37 p.m.: If you’re not keeping an eye on school election results, you should. Tonight is a low-key big night for schools, with $244 million in bonds and levies on the ballot.

Track our live results page here.

Early takeaways: For all the supplementals where we have results, the levies are over the simple majority needed to pass. No results yet from Coeur d’Alene, which has the biggest levy of the night: a $50 million request.

The one bond issue on the ballot is short of the two-thirds supermajority requirement: the Soda Springs $55.2 million request. A two-thirds threshold is tough to meet on any election day. A November election, coinciding with a presidential race, is an even tougher hurdle.

10:24 p.m.: The latest from the “close races” page on the secretary of state’s results site:

    • District 6 Senate: Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Viola, 50.7%. Julia Parker, Democrat, 49.3%.
    • District 15 Senate: Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise, 51.1%. Former Rep. Codi Galloway, Republican, 48.9%.
    • District 15 House Seat A: Rep. Steve Berch, D-Boise, 52.8%; Annette Tipton, Republican, 47.2%.
    • District 15 House B: Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, 51.1%; Shari Baber, Democrat, 48.9%.
    • District 29 House Seat A: Mary Shea, Democrat, 52.3%; Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, 47.7%.

The upshot: The Healey-Baber race has flipped in the past half hour. No new numbers in Shea-Manwaring.

If all of these results hold, the Democrats would pick up a House seat. But based on some early numbers from District 26, Democrats would stand to lose the Senate seat and a House seat in that district.

10:10 p.m.: The numbers on Proposition 1 are even more lopsided than they were the last we checked in.

    • No: 223,821 (66.4%)
    • Yes: 113,453 (33.6%)
When the dust settles on this election, there’s going to be a lot of soul searching about how this initiative failed so resoundingly at the polls. Despite (or perhaps partially because of) a multimillion-dollar campaign for it, funded largely by out-of-state backers.

10:02 p.m.: We’re getting the first numbers from legislative District 26, another swing district.

Right now, all three Republicans are leading: former Rep. Laurie Lickley, who is looking to unseat Democratic Sen. Ron Taylor; Rep. Jack Nelsen; and Mike Pohanka, who is in a rematch with Rep. Ned Burns, D-Bellevue.

The numbers so far as from Jerome County. Nothing yet from the other counties in this district: Lincoln and Blaine. The latter is a Democratic stronghold.

9:48 p.m.: One neat feature on the secretary of state’s page, which does some legwork for us, highlights “close” races.

Right now, three legislative races are on the list:

  • District 15 Senate: Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise, 53.3%. Former Rep. Codi Galloway, Republican, 46.7%.
  • District 15 House B: Shari Baber, Democrat, 51.1%. Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, 48.9%.
  • District 29 House Seat A: Mary Shea, Democrat, 52.3%; Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, 47.7%.

It’s early, but the two House races would be pickups for the Democrats, and Just would be a big hold. District 29 is a swing district, so we were keeping an eye on the Manwaring-Shea race. But it’s worth noting that Manwaring is a member of House GOP leadership, the party’s caucus chair. So, this would be a significant result if it holds up.

9:33 p.m.: The early numbers on Proposition 1 look like a blowout.

  • No: 149,396 (64.2%).
  • Yes: 83,145 (35.8%).

For some perspective, the constitutional amendment that would allow only U.S. citizens to vote in elections is passing, at 62.6% of the vote. (The amendment needs only a simple majority to pass.) The numbers suggest that voters may have made a point to vote against Prop. 1.

9:24 p.m.: In District 15, West Boise’s battleground legislative district, Democratic Sen. Rick Just and Rep. Steve Berch and Democratic challenger Shari Baber have jumped out to early leads.

Significantly, Just has 58% of the early vote in a rematch with former Rep. Codi Galloway, a Republican.

It looks like most of these numbers are early votes and absentee votes, which could skew toward the Democrats. These are races we’ll be watching all night.

9:11 p.m.: Some of the earliest numbers on the secretary of state’s page are from Nez Perce County.

That takes in part of one of the four legislative districts we’re watching tonight: District 6.

Based on the numbers — and the state’s page doesn’t include the number of precincts reporting and not reporting — the three Republican incumbents are winning big. That includes Sen. Dan Foreman of Viola and Reps. Lori McCann of Lewiston and Brandon Mitchell of Moscow.

9:00 p.m.: Polls are now closing in North Idaho. They closed an hour ago in the Mountain Time Zone.

That means we should start seeing Idaho numbers shortly.

8:00 p.m.: Good evening, and welcome to my Election Night live blog.

I’ll update throughout the night, and into Wednesday morning, with results and instant analysis.

We’ll focus here — in no particular order — on the Proposition 1 vote, the legislative races in Idaho’s scattered swing districts, and the $244 million in school bonds and levies on the ballot.

Check back after the last Idaho polls close and the first numbers start coming in — probably shortly after 9 p.m. MST.

 

Kevin Richert

Kevin Richert

Senior reporter and blogger Kevin Richert specializes in education politics and education policy. He has more than 30 years of experience in Idaho journalism. He is a frequent guest on "Idaho Reports" on Idaho Public Television and "Idaho Matters" on Boise State Public Radio. Follow Kevin on Twitter: @KevinRichert. He can be reached at [email protected]

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