Days after Idaho Republican delegates passed a platform that called for defunding higher education, Alicia Estey crunched some numbers and fired off a doomsday email.

Zeroing out the higher ed budget would cost Boise State University $129 million in taxpayer support, forcing the state’s largest four-year school to put the shortfall on the backs of students. Making up for the $129 million loss would force Boise State to jack up tuition and fees; a full-time in-state student would pay $16,548 a year, instead of the current $9,048.

And if these price increases scared off some students, Boise State would be forced to charge even more. A 30% enrollment decrease would force Boise State to charge resident students $22,745 a year, said Estey, the university’s chief financial and operating officer, in a June 25 email obtained by Idaho Education News through a public records request.

University President Marlene Tromp’s reaction was brief. “Very concerning in terms of access,” Tromp said later that day, in an email to House Minority Leader Ilana Rubel, D-Boise.

The email thread explored a worst-case scenario for higher education — and an unlikely one this year. But that doesn’t mean higher ed will have it easy this session, as budget requests work their way through the Legislature.

The college and university presidents will take their budget requests to the Legislature next week. However, the Legislature’s new budget process eliminates a good deal of the suspense.

On Friday, the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee approved 10 “maintenance” budget bills, setting a spending base for all of state government. The base funding for higher education comes from a State Board of Education budget that comes in at $1.1 billion, including $671 million from state tax coffers.

JFAC passed this State Board budget unanimously. It still has to pass both houses. But barring a revolt on the House or Senate floor — or a gubernatorial veto — higher ed will not be defunded next year.

The higher education budget debate will likely occur on the margins, and when and if lawmakers follow up on the “maintenance” budget. Look for four main themes:

People. We’ll see how much this Legislature values its higher education workforce — some 4,900 full-time positions on the four campuses.

JFAC still hasn’t decided on pay raises for state employees, including college and university faculty and staff. The committee left that part out of the maintenance budget. Gov. Brad Little has proposed 5% pay raises across all of state government. For higher education, the 5% merit raises would cost close to $24 million.

And that’s not all.

The four-year schools want an additional $3.4 million in discretionary money, known as “operational capacity enhancement.” Jargon aside, this is a line item for pay raises and benefits, and the schools say they need the money to stem the surge of employees walking out the door. In 2023-24, for example, Boise State reported turnover rates of 5% for faculty, 12% for professional staff and 17% for classified employees.

Launch. JFAC put $74.8 million for Idaho Launch into another one of the “maintenance” budget bills. But that doesn’t mean Little’s pet postsecondary aid program is home free.

Conservative lawmakers have made no secret of their disdain for Launch. And while they might not be able to defund it either, they might try to overhaul it. House Speaker Mike Moyle, R-Star, has said he wants to rework Launch to emphasize short-term job training programs, not two- and four-year college degrees.

Moyle often gets his way. If he wins this fight, he would change the face of a financial aid program that is being used overwhelming on college campuses, driving enrollment increases that defy national trends.

Scholarships. Like Launch, college scholarships aren’t directly part of the universities’ budget. But scholarships obviously are a big piece of the formula, as Idaho colleges and universities prepare for an enrollment “cliff,” and increased competition for a shrinking demographic of 18- to 22-year-olds. And this week, JFAC members said they want the State Board to provide a progress report on its $37 million in scholarship programs.

Buildings. Little’s Permanent Building Fund request includes $22.5 million for three higher ed building projects. The biggest request of the bunch is $14 million for a new life sciences building which has long topped Idaho State University’s wish list. President Robert Wagner has said the existing building is too old to renovate in a cost-effective manner; a replacement is what he calls the “first domino” in the university’s multiyear master plan.

Eagle Republican Sen. C. Scott Grow, JFAC’s co-chair, frequently calls the maintenance budgets a way of keeping the lights on in state government. Based on the string of bipartisan votes in JFAC last week — on all of the maintenance budgets — this Legislature doesn’t seem poised to shut out the lights on higher ed, or anything else.

But the logic behind the maintenance budget process is that it’s designed to give lawmakers more time to examine new spending proposals. And make it easier to vote up or down on growing government.

And for higher ed, that could be the issue. Does this Legislature want to help universities hire and keep their employees? Or attract students who cannot otherwise afford college? Or replace aging buildings? These are things states do when they’re willing to grow their higher ed system, not merely maintain it.

And like the Legislature in general, JFAC looks considerably more conservative this year. Several hardliners are new to the committee — especially on the Senate side. And that’s significant because, according to committee rules, budget bills need to get majority support from JFAC’s 10 House members and 10 senators. JFAC’s more moderate House caucus and its more conservative Senate caucus could well find itself at an impasse on budget bills as the session unfolds.

Many GOP lawmakers share the frustrations that were baked into June’s Republican Party platform — skepticism about programs like Launch, contempt for anything that falls under the broad heading of diversity, equity and inclusion. That could spell trouble not just in JFAC, but on the House and Senate floor.

A defunding doomsday? Not likely. Budget drama? Almost inevitable.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.