Idaho’s four-year schools are a national outlier this fall. In a good way.

At the University of Idaho, first-year enrollment climbed by 8.3% — and for the third straight year, the U of I welcomed its largest freshman class in history. Boise State University’s in-state, first-year enrollment increased by 11.5%, setting a record. At Idaho State University, first-time undergraduate enrollment increased by 2.4%, reaching its highest mark in a decade. Lewis-Clark State College’s first-time, full-time enrollment grew by 16%.

This statewide surge defies the national trend: First-year enrollment is down by 5%, and down by 8.5% at the four-year schools, Inside Higher Ed reported Wednesday. It’s the steepest dropoff since the pandemic, and appears to be linked to the bungled rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid.

The FAFSA fiasco certainly reached Idaho: According to Las Vegas-based Data Insight Partners, only 38% of Idaho seniors filled out the form last school year, down 11 percentage points from the previous year. Yet in spite of this, and in spite of Idaho’s perennial struggles to convince high school graduates to stay in school, the fall enrollment numbers are an unqualified success story.

What happened?

Idaho Launch happened.

As this year’s high school graduates start to use the first round of Launch dollars, Idaho’s colleges and universities are riding the crest of the wave. Launch’s first-year impact on higher ed enrollment is impossible to overlook, but easy to quantify.

The Workforce Development Council — the state agency that administers Launch — says students have used nearly 6,500 grants as of Oct. 1.

About 3,250 of these Launch recipients are using their money at Idaho’s public four-year schools: the U of I, Boise State, Idaho State and Lewis-Clark. That accounts for half of the Launch grants now in use.

Factor in Idaho’s community colleges and private four-year colleges, and more than 90% of Launch recipients are using their share of the money to pursue a more or less traditional pathway to campus.

And it means that Launch, so far, is playing out more or less like a traditional college scholarship program.

None of this is surprising. State officials had been expecting Launch to drive up college enrollment this fall. And after years of dismal college go-on numbers — and the criticism and scrutiny that comes with it — education leaders and Launch supporters were certainly hoping the $70.8 million program would buy Idaho a turnaround.

But Launch wasn’t designed to be a booster for Idaho higher ed —and unlike the state’s existing Opportunity Scholarship, it isn’t strictly designed to be a pathway to campus. It was touted as a pathway to a good-paying job in a high-demand career. Launch was built around options: allowing high school graduates to take their money, up to $8,000, and go to college or enroll in a job training program. Supporters said they wanted to provide an alternative for high school grads who want job training, and don’t see themselves as college-bound.

That’s still happening, to an extent, and there are signs in the Workforce Development Council data that Launch is paying for an all-of-the-above menu of postsecondary options. But Launch is heavily skewed toward traditional college, as two data points suggest.

Right now, 40 students are using Launch dollars at Northwest Lineman College. A poster child in the Statehouse debates over Launch, the Meridian-based Northwest Lineman College says its students can receive training in 15 weeks. Meanwhile, 92 students are using Launch dollars at the College of Idaho, a private four-year liberal arts college in Caldwell.

Since January 2023, when Gov. Brad Little floated the Launch proposal to a skeptical Legislature, Idaho’s college and university leaders have been among his most vociferous allies. This first round of Launch-driven enrollment numbers is only going to reinforce that support.

At Idaho State, Launch is a linchpin for student recruiting. With programs ranging from health care professions to business to teacher preparation, Idaho State offers the widest variety of majors aligned to the state’s list of Launch-eligible careers. “We have the most to gain,” President Robert Wagner said during a recent Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce virtual forum.

At the ever-growing College of Western Idaho, Launch also could provide an impetus for expansion. When President Gordon Jones discussed Launch at a separate Boise chamber forum in October, he said his open-enrollment college has waiting lists for two popular Launch programs: welding and nursing. CWI will eventually need to add staff and facilities to meet this demand, either through partnerships with industry or through state funding. He pledged to expand on a shoestring — “You’re not going to find it cheaper,” he said — but expansion won’t come without a cost.

This year’s higher education enrollment numbers won’t answer the big questions about Launch: Will the program prepare young adults for good careers, and will it help Idaho employers find the workers they need? Those answers are still several years away.

The enrollment numbers probably won’t change many legislators’ minds about Launch. Supporters will see the enrollment numbers as validation that Launch is meeting student demand. Detractors have painted Launch as a government handout — and they’re apt to say the lofty enrollment numbers only confirm their deepest fears.

The data won’t change the debate. But it reveals a lot about what is unfolding, and right now, on Idaho’s campuses.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.