Usually, by early August, Idaho colleges and universities have a good idea of how many new students they can expect on campus.

Even though they’re tracking unpredictable 18-year-olds — who are enrolling in college and possibly leaving home for the first time — the admissions pros can work up a solid set of forecasts.

This year is different. The Idaho Launch grant program could bring a surge of new first-year students. But the FAFSA fiasco — the botched rollout of a new federal financial aid form — could keep some would-be students from enrolling.

“It has not been a boring year,” said Kris Collins, Boise State University’s associate vice president for enrollment management.

Enrolling in college is, of course, a life-altering decision for students and parents. But the stakes for Idaho’s colleges and universities cannot be overstated. As Idaho sinks a shrinking sliver of the state budget into higher education, its public colleges and universities rely even more on revenue from tuition and fees. And as higher education encounters increasing pushback at the Statehouse, the enrollment numbers represent a stress test, measuring viability in the middle of a political maelstrom.

The recent numbers have been encouraging. The colleges and universities have appeared to pull out from a pandemic-era enrollment nosedive. For spring 2024, student headcounts improved at every public college and university in Idaho, save for North Idaho College. The promising trend sets the stage for an autumn of unknowns.

Variable #1: Launch

The most important thing to remember about the $70.8 million Launch postsecondary program is that no one really knows what to expect. Graduates can use their money, up to $8,000, for college or job training. Without a track record to use as a baseline, colleges and universities aren’t sure how many first-year students will show up to use Launch money.  “We’re all kind of going into it blind but hopeful,” Collins said Wednesday.

The numbers are ever-changing, and on Thursday, the state’s point person on Launch declined to break down the enrollments by school. But more than half of the state’s Launch recipients will use their money to go to a two- or four-year school.

“Nearly 5,500 of the over 9,000 Launch awardees have solidified their ‘go-on’ plans using their Launch awards,” said Wendi Secrist, executive director of Idaho’s Workforce Development Council.

The 5,500 figure appears to be a slight dropoff. In early June, citing Workforce Development Council numbers, the State Board of Education said 5,857 graduating seniors had accepted a Launch grant and planned to go to college.

But plans can change between June and August. And on top of that, the new Launch process is tricky. Graduates had to log in this summer and formally accept their Launch awards.

“I think that our families are getting a little bit lost and a little bit confused,” said Dean Kahler, the University of Idaho’s vice provost for strategic enrollment management.

Collins is worried about another possible hangup. Launch dollars are tied to in-demand careers, so students have to declare a major when they register for college. But they then have to report their major to the state. If the paperwork doesn’t line up precisely, the student won’t get a Launch grant — and might not show up for fall classes. So Boise State is texting, calling and robocalling would-be students to make sure their registrations match.

Despite the glitches, Launch could factor into enrollment surges across the state.

The College of Western Idaho expects an increase in the number of students coming straight from high school, perhaps in the range of 150 students, spokesman Ashley Smith said. (Over the past five years, CWI has enrolled an average of 845 new high school grads each fall.) The high school graduating class of 2024 is a particularly significant cohort: the first group to qualify for Launch.

Boise State had been projecting a 2% increase in first-year enrollment, partly because of Launch. Now, Collins expects to beat that number. She also expects to see a continued shift in demographics. Since Launch dollars are available only to Idaho students who stay in Idaho, Collins expects in-state students to account for most of Boise State’s first-year growth.

Just three years ago, a majority of Boise State’s first-year students came from outside Idaho.

Variable #2: FAFSA

The new Free Application for Federal Student Aid has produced a year’s worth of new headaches for parents, students and college administrators. The rollout was delayed, which in turn has led to delays in financial aid awards. As fall approaches, the FAFSA fiasco has contributed to job cuts and budget cuts on campuses across the nation, Inside Higher Ed reported this week.

The troubled rollout reverberated in Idaho — a state that has long had one of the nation’s lowest FAFSA completion rates.

Only 37.9% of Idaho high school seniors completed a FAFSA this year, according to Data Insight Partners, a Las Vegas-based firm that tracks completion rates. Only five states ranked lower than Idaho.

On top of that, the number of Idaho seniors filling out a FAFSA fell by 11% from the previous year, translating to about 1,200 fewer students.

Idaho students must fill out a FAFSA for both federal aid and Idaho’s Opportunity Scholarship. FAFSA isn’t required for Launch.

Soon after the FAFSA problems began to surface, the U of I worked FAFSA coaching into its new student open houses, Kahler said. The U of I has also been able to work with current students, who need to fill out a FAFSA each year to qualify for continued aid. But there isn’t much the university can do for families who struggled with the form — and walked away in frustration. “Those are the populations that I’m most concerned about.”

Boise State is working through student FAFSA corrections, manually, in hopes of making fixes before the federal aid goes out on Friday. It’s been a night-and-day job for the financial aid staff, Collins said.

And amidst the scramble, college and university officials received some unwelcome news Wednesday. The feds will delay the release of the FAFSA for 2025-26, tapping the brakes on an application season that usually begins in October.

Understandably enough, Collins wants to focus on one year’s worth of FAFSA problems, for now. “If it happens again, we’ll face it.”

Waiting for a critical set of statistics

Students are beginning to arrive at and return to the U of I, for classes that will begin on Aug. 19. Campus housing is full — and that bodes well for first-year enrollment, since first-year students must live in a dorm or on Greek row. It’s a good indicator, as Kahler tries to use the available metrics to figure out what to expect this fall.

“I like having pure data to work with, but that’s not always the case,” he said.

The colleges and universities must report their fall enrollment numbers to the State Board by October. Always eagerly awaited, this year’s enrollment numbers might be even more important that usual.

Enrollment might be the most vital statistic in Idaho higher education — representing both revenue and political capital. When college and university leaders appear before the 2025 Legislature, lobbying for the share of money their schools do get from state coffers, you can expect them to leverage every encouraging enrollment number at their disposal.

The numbers are also important to Gov. Brad Little, Launch’s architect. He will surely lean on any favorable enrollment figure as he seeks continued funding for the controversial Launch program — which, like higher education in general, faces considerable headwinds at the Statehouse.

The hard numbers are a few weeks away. In the meantime, Collins and her peers are using some science and some art to forecast the future. “We are definitely being very artistic this year.”

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on education policy and education politics. Look for his stories each Thursday.